Retail falls by sharpest level since May 2012
NI’s retail sector has experienced its sharpest decline since May 2012, causing the economy to “effectively stall”, the Ulster Bank has said.
April data from the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI found that the retail sector has fallen more than any other, while output and new orders declined following marginal growth in March.
In the rest of the economy, firms continued to increase their staffing levels during the month, while the rate of inflation remained modest as output prices continued to fall.
Ulster Bank’s chief economist Richard Ramsey said the local private sector had reported the fourth monthly decline in activity in five months in April.
The economist said the latest falls, although modest, confirmed Northern Ireland’s private sector recovery had “effectively stalled” since November last year.
Meanwhile, the modest decline in private sector activity compared unfavourably with growth in all of the other UK regions.
“The fall in business activity was due to steep declines in construction and retail, which more than offset the respectable rates of growth within manufacturing and services,” he said. “Last month, local retailers reported their sharpest decline in retail sales since May 2012.”
Mr Ramsey’s also said a reversal of the trend was “not yet on the horizon”, as the index predicting future new orders dipped sharply.
“Whilst Northern Ireland’s headline performance, in terms of output and orders, is disappointing, it conceals vastly differing performances at a sector level,” he added.
The service sector and manufacturing both maintained a pattern of expansion, although at much lower levels than since the recovery in the first half of 2013.
Infographic
The poor figures came as the Ulster Bank released a new infographic showing breakdown of the main sectors that make-up NI’s economy.
The new data shows NI’s food, drink and tobacco industries had a combined annual turnover of £9.6 billion between 2013 and 2014.
A quarter of all local businesses in NI are in the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector, the figures show, while the retail sector is the third largest sector, accounting for nine per cent of the local economy.
