And whilst retail sales are set to uplift versus previous years, sales volume is forecast to decrease by 0.3% for the first time since 2023 as consumers remain cautious over festive spending.

As retailer Peter McBride told NR, Christmas is a difficult time for convenience retailers.

“We have high sales for the weeks leading into Christmas but sales suffer after,” he said.

“Higher wage costs, reductions and wastage, and general operational difficulties make Christmas hard work. Coming out of Christmas is as important now as going into it. Fresh deliveries are difficult in the period immediately after Christmas, but there are big wins to be had with good planning, availability and staffing.”

Retail sales grew strongly in the three months to October, according to the latest figures from the ONS. However, in October alone monthly sales fell back for the first time since May.

“Supermarkets, clothing stores and online retailers all saw slower sales, with feedback from some retailers that consumers were waiting for November’s Black Friday deals,” said ONS Chief Economist, Grant Fitzner.

Meanwhile, the British Retail Consortium said much of the growth in October was from a strong performance from smaller retailers.

“BRC members hope that Black Friday and the run up to Christmas will provide an uplift to sales, particularly when the Budget falls during peak trading season which has knocked consumer confidence,” said Dr Kris Hamer, Director of Insight at the BRC.

“With retailers still reeling from the £7bn of additional tax, they are hopeful for a budget that ensures no store pays more in business rates so they can invest more in their stores and warehouses which bring jobs and growth for the UK economy.”

Peter McBride said he was remaining optimistic about this Christmas.

“We are looking forward to the Christmas season with optimism having experienced strong sales growth so far in 2025,” he said.

“Every year we get a significant uplift in sales in the week leading up to Christmas Day, more especially in the two or three days preceding the ‘big’ day.”

With the 12 Deals of Christmas promotional campaign run by SPAR well underway across his stores, Peter said these deals are very important for both him and his customers.

“This is the main mechanic we have been running for a few years now, and our customers look out for the new deals every week,” he said.

“It’s a very popular campaign and offers market-leading deals that really sets us apart from the competition. We are also planning some carol singing events in some of our stores, and tasting of some Christmas fayre to help everyone get into the festive spirit.”

Describing Christmas as a balancing act, Peter added that despite the balance being the same every year, it doesn’t seem to get any easier.

“It’s about having enough of what everyone wants, but not having too much that will incur huge waste, primarily of fresh product lines,” he said.

“We really need full availability into Christmas Eve, this is what our customers expect and we need to deliver on that.

“Christmas 2024 was a great trading period for us and every year we always manage to beat the previous year. This year can be no different. We must achieve like-for-like sales growth of a minimum of 5% to ensure we are at least ahead of food inflation, above that is real growth.”

The post Great expectations this Christmas first appeared on Neighbourhood Retailer.

Amongst the many significant challenges already facing the sector, it has been revealed that 139,000 people work in retail in Northern Ireland – a reduction of some 7000.

The latest ONS figures outline some stark figures for retail right across the UK, with 2.81 million jobs in retail in September 2024 – a traditionally low point of the year before rising again ahead of Christmas.

However, questions are being raised about the challenging retail environment, given the context that record numbers are employed overall in Northern Ireland.

“The numbers employed in Northern Ireland overall are up 9000 in the past year, but in retail in the past year numbers have flatlined,” said Director of the Northern Ireland Retail Consortium, Neil Johnston.

“Retail is extremely challenging at present, shopping trends are changing, footfall is continuing to fall and sales are at best flat. Profit margins are notoriously small.

“Recent years have seen additional supply chain and statutory costs imposed on all employers, including retailers, but the environment in retail has been so challenging this has led to this marked decline in staff numbers,” he added.

“Retailing remains a significant employer – employing almost one in six people in Northern Ireland with many more in the supply chain. It is also an important part of the local economy, however, the proposed increases in employers’ National Insurance and expensive regulations for tackling waste seem certain to guarantee that life will remain tough for retailers in 2025.”

It isn’t all bad news though, as there were clear signs consumers were stocking their cupboards early ahead of Christmas while also getting into the spooky spirit for Halloween.

Retailers received a sales boost as shoppers started their Christmas shopping early, buying in some store cupboard staples for the festive period

Take-home sales at the grocers increased by 2.3% over the four weeks to 3^rd November to reach £11.6 billion (Kantar), making it the biggest sales month of the year at that point.

However, while some consumers believe Christmas adverts and seasonal treats are being brought out too soon each year, there are still those who are willing to stock up early and get their festive preparations started.

Before mid-November, some 648,000 shoppers had already bought a Christmas cake, with 14.4% of households also picking up mince pies in October.

Supermarket sales are forecast to exceed £13 billion over the four weeks of December, with Monday 23^rd December set to be the single busiest day for supermarkets this year.

As many people are willing to treat themselves at this time of year, retailers benefit from setting their stalls out early and encouraging consumers to spread the cost of Christmas over a couple of months.

Meanwhile, the Northern Ireland economy is expected to have grown by 1.1% during 2024, according to Danske Bank, which has lowered its previous forecast of 1.2%.

Its latest Northern Ireland Quarterly Sectoral Forecasts predict that economic growth would pick up next year, with expansion of about 1.4%.

Activity in the wholesale and retail trade sector is projected to rise by around 1.4% in 2024, then grow at a stronger pace than the overall economy in 2025. Danske Bank’s projections for this is supported by the Index of Services data, with the broad sub-index for the whole sale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; and accommodation and food service sector rising by 3.3% over the year to 2024 Q2.

Additionally, as we fast approach Christmas and consumers are in the final throes of frantic Christmas shopping, the Police Service of Northern Ireland has reminded consumers to be respectful of retail staff and other shoppers.

As part of their initiative, Operation Season’s Greetings, PSNI officers across Northern Ireland are patrolling retail outlets and areas to remind everyone to shop safe.

The operation has seen an increase in proactive police patrols across key areas of Northern Ireland, in an effort to prevent crime as well as reassure shoppers and business owners that additional resources are in place.

The post Christmas challenges as retail staff at lowest number in five years first appeared on Neighbourhood Retailer.

This increase made it the biggest sales month of the year so far, according to the latest data from Kantar.

The take-home sales coincided with a jump in the number of shopping trips made by households, hitting a four-year high at 480 million. While Halloween played a part in galvanising sales, there are signs that consumers are looking ahead and starting their Christmas shopping early.

Grocery price inflation was up slightly on September’s figure, but still within typical levels, with the rate now below 3.0% every month since early summer. As Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insights at Kantar explained, October 2024 was the busiest month for the supermarkets since March 2020.

“Trip numbers have been going up gradually for some time, but this steady march hasn’t reached pre-covid levels of shopping frequency just yet. The average for each household is slightly over four trips per week,” said Fraser McKevitt.

“What’s interesting this month is the number of households who are already stocking up the cupboards for the big day in December. Some people think Christmas ads hit our screens too soon, but it’s clearly important for retailers to set out their stalls early.”

According to Kantar’s figures, 648,000 shoppers have already bought a Christmas cake, while 14.4% of households picked up mince pies in October.

“With Black Friday on the horizon, the grocers will be hoping to capture a slice of the action there too,” added Fraser McKevitt.

“In the week up to 26^th November last year, online and offline sales for typical Black Friday categories across all high street retailers were £1.6 billion higher than during an average week in 2023.”

Promotional activity by the grocers is helping to keep prices down and supporting sales of branded goods in particular.

“Spending on deals has been going up consistently for the past 18 months and it now makes up 28.6% of all sales,” said Fraser.

“Offers are helping to lift branded sales especially. The growth gap between brands and own-label is the biggest it’s been since February 2021, sitting at 4.9% and 2.7% apiece.

“We’ll be keeping a close eye on those numbers to see whether the gap continues to widen in the run up to Christmas.”

In the supermarket shares, Lidl was the fastest growing retailer with a bricks and mortar presence for the 15^th period in a row, continuing this run into a second year.

It secured 326,000 additional shoppers this period, more than any other retailer, and saw particularly strong fresh produce sales growth at 22%.

Meanwhile, the two largest supermarkets also outperformed the wider market. With sales up across all its store formats and online, Tesco’s sales rose by 4.6%, taking it to 27.9% of the market, while spending through the tills at Sainsbury’s climbed 4.4%, making its overall share 15.5%. Sainsbury’s saw a rise in both shopper numbers and trips this period.

The post Supermarket sales hit 2024 high as shoppers get ready for Christmas first appeared on Neighbourhood Retailer.

With spend anticipated to equate to £1155.47 per head in NI, it is expected to be the lowest of all UK regions. However, sales are to rise 5.2% year-on-year, giving Northern Ireland the biggest year-on-year growth.

In the Shopping for Christmas Report 2024, VoucherCodes.co.uk forecasts a 4% boost in sales this festive season across the UK, with consumers spending on gifts, food and drink, and holiday travel.

Whilst the rise comes partly from inflation, it is also driven by a 1.4% rise in sales volume year-on-year, as consumers have more money in their pockets to buy more items.

The latest report reveals retailers are expected to enjoy a 1.4% uplift in sales volume this Christmas season, with both online and offline sales to rise, hitting £32.48bn and £55.81bn respectively.

Closer to home, almost all retail categories are expected to see a rise in spend this Christmas. With the highest total spend, gifts will account for £11.35bn of sales – a 0.8% YoY rise on the £11.25bn spent last year. However, holiday travel will see the biggest YoY rise at 6.4%, that’s a jump from £2.18bn to £2.32bn. Food and drink will also see a large uplift at 5.1% YoY, with sales hitting £8.07bn.

Decorations is the only category to see a fall in spend this year, with sales falling -4.3% from £0.66bn to £0.63bn as consumers prioritise spending on family celebrations.

Michael Brandy, Senior Commercial Director at VoucherCodes.co.uk said: “It’s set to be a very Merry Christmas for retailers this year. Almost all areas of retail are forecast to see uplifts over the Christmas period, consumers are finally willing and able to splurge and treat themselves and their family to a big festive celebration.

“Although consumers have more money in their bank accounts to spend this Christmas, they’re still looking for ways to stretch their budget. After two years of a cost-of-living crisis, consumers are much more financially savvy and know when they see a good deal. To convince them to part with their hard-earned cash, retailers will have to offer genuine value and should consider deals and discounts as a way to entice customers to spend.”

The post All areas of retail predicted to see uplifts this Christmas period first appeared on Neighbourhood Retailer.

A new Safefood survey has revealed that 87% of Northern Ireland adults believe that retailers are pushing Hallowe’en and Christmas-themed treat foods, such as sweets and chocolates, far too early in the calendar.

The research shows that these early promotions leave three in four adults feeling annoyed, stressed, and pressured by the temptation to purchase high-fat, high-sugar, and high-salt Hallowe’en and Christmas treats well ahead of the festive holidays.

This constant bombardment of Hallowe’en and Christmas treats makes it harder for families to maintain healthier eating habits, especially as parents try to re-establish healthy routines with the new school year.

Food-related ill-health is the leading cause of preventable illness and death in the developed world, with one in four children in Northern Ireland living with overweight or obesity, putting them at significantly increased risk of developing chronic diseases like Type 2 diabetes, heart disease, and certain cancers in adulthood.

The findings come as part of Safefood’s campaign to create a healthier food environment by raising awareness of the unhealthy food environment, how it is potentially harmful to our health and why it needs to change.

It highlights the urgent need to transform our food landscape by tackling the overwhelming variety and availability of unhealthy food options that encourage families to shop and eat unhealthily at nearly every turn.

Commenting on the survey, Dr Aileen McGloin, Director of Nutrition with Safefood said: “We can all already see them – stacks of Christmas sweet tins piled high in supermarkets since September. Plus, the hype of Hallowe’en when children are only just back to school.

“We know retailers target this time of the year in order to extend sales before occasions like Hallowe’en or Christmas – the industry even has a phrase for it, calling it ‘Summerween’.

“The real truth is that shoppers don’t want this. It’s not fair to be faced with this temptation so far in advance of special occasions and it leaves people feeling annoyed and stressed. If we want to build a healthier food environment for our health and that of our children, we need to stop these kinds of promotions. Expecting any of us to make a healthier choice is simply not possible when faced with this relentless sales push.”

Behavioural Psychologist Padraig Walsh added: “This survey confirms that these prominent promotions along with their associated ‘pester power’ are highly effective in attracting attention, often leaving parents feeling annoyed, stressed, and pressured.

“Many parents had only just set healthy eating goals for back-to-school. Once again, the architecture of the food environment needlessly disrupts their resolve and willpower.

“Developing new habits takes time, typically months to become established, and such environmental pressures undermine these efforts at critical stages.”

The post Over two thirds of NI adults say retailers promote themed treat foods too early first appeared on Neighbourhood Retailer.