Shoppers were in a celebratory mood for Valentine’s Day, spending an additional £2.6 million on champagne and sparkling wine and a further £2.3 million on wine.

However, as the latest insight from Worldpanel by Numerator show, convenience was still front and centre for NI shoppers, with 55% of households buying pre-made pancakes and spending £4.2 million on the category in total this Pancake Day.

And despite the uptick in sales, trips to stores declined further, down 8.1% on last year – however shoppers are purchasing more each trip, adding an additional £114 million to the market.

As Eimear Faughnan, Head of Retail for Ireland at Worldpanel by Numerator, points out, over the last 12 weeks shoppers have been stocking up for key seasonal events.

“Shoppers sought convenience and affordable options during this period, with frozen ready meals featuring more in baskets and the number of packs bought increasing by 15.5%, adding £505,000 to the category,” said Eimear.

“Healthy topping options for pancakes, including blueberries and strawberries gained new shoppers, increasing by 6.7 and 2.0 percentage points respectively.”

Despite a backdrop of higher prices, branded goods maintained their lead over own label, with 55.6% value share of the market – up 3.7%, or an additional £87.3 million.

“It is a different picture for own label this year, which grew marginally by 0.1%, adding £1.2 million,” added Eimear. “Premium was the standout performer within own label ranges, growing by 10.8%.

“There were more promotions on offer this year, as grocers looked to attract shoppers. Packs on promotion held 23.4% market value share, up 3.2 percentage points on last year. Overall, shoppers spent an additional £234 million on promotions compared to the same time last year.”

Meanwhile, Tesco remains Northern Ireland’s largest grocer, growing its share of the market by 2.2 percentage points over the four weeks, to 38.7%. This growth came from both new shoppers and bigger baskets, adding £123 million to its performance.

Sainsbury’s follows with a 17.3% share, up 5.7% year-on-year, while Asda now holds 14.6% value share this period. Lidl increased its share to 9.6%, up by 6.7%, welcoming new shoppers and seeing existing customers continue to buy more per trip, contributing a combined uplift of just over £10 million.

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In the year to 10^th August 2025, £4.4 billion was spent in the region’s grocery sector, representing a 1.9% increase on the previous year, according to the latest figures.

This growth was partly driven by warm summer weather and the tail end of the school holidays.

Although shoppers made 2.5% fewer trips, they bought more per visit, adding £70.6 million to overall growth.

The new insights from Worldpanel by Numerator also reveals that grocery inflation now stands at 3.09%, up from 2.97% last month.

Emer Healy, Business Development Director at Worldpanel by Numerator said that the final weeks of the holidays and the good weather encouraged shoppers to indulge in season favourites, leading to an additional £7.8 million spent on soft drinks, water and ice cream.

“Convenience also remained important, with £2.5 million more spent on chilled ready meals and antipasti. A busy social calendar contributed to spending of more than £6 million on sports and energy drinks,” said Emer.

Meanwhile, branded goods rose by £42.2 million, a 1.8% year-on-year increase, bringing their value share to 54.9%. Own-label products also performed well, rising by 2.1% with an extra £38.5 million spent and now accounting for 43.2% of the market by value.

“To make the most of their budgets, many households turned to a mix of own-label lines and promotional offers,” added Emer.

“Promotions remain a central feature of the market, now representing 23% of value sales, the highest level recorded in Northern Ireland, with more than £1 billion spent on discounted products.”

Within the supermarkets, Tesco holds the largest share at 37.3%, an increase of 7.2% on last year. Growth was supported by new shoppers, increased spend from existing customers and larger basket sizes, contributing £75.2 million to its performance.

Sainsbury’s has a 16.8% share, up 2.1% year-on-year, with more shoppers and bigger baskets boosting sales by £27.2 million.

Asda accounts for 15.6% of the market this period, while Lidl has increased its share to 9.2%, up 3.9%, as it attracted new customers and delivered an uplift of £14.4 million.

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The latest figures from Worldpanel by Numerator show that take-home sales at the grocers grew by 4.0% over the four weeks to 10^th August, versus last year.

Additionally, the sales of branded goods are growing ahead of own-label alternatives, showing the largest gap in favour of brands since March 2024.

While people are making savings outside of the home, they continue to seek treats in stores. Sales of branded grocery items grew by 6.1% this month, putting the ahead of own-label alternatives which were up by 4.1%.

Branded sales make up 46.4% of all grocery spending but are particularly dominant in personal care, confectionery, hot drinks and soft drinks, where they account for more than 75% of money through the tills.

While a far smaller part of the market, premium own-label also continues to do well, with sales rising by 11.5% in this period.

Head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel, Fraser McKevitt highlighted some interesting take aways from the latest figures.

“We’ve seen a marginal drop in grocery price inflation this month, but we’re still well past the point at which price rises really start to bite and consumers are continuing to adapt their behaviour to make ends meet,” he said.

“What people pay for their supermarket shopping often impacts their spending across other parts of the high street too, including their eating and drinking habits out of the home.

“Casual and fast service restaurants especially have seen a decline in visitors over the summer, with trips falling by 6% during the three months to mid-July 2025, compared with last year. The outliers in this are coffee shops, which have bucked the trend.”

Fraser also noted a significant milestone in freezer aisles this year, as the fish finger turns 70 in September.

“The humble fish finger remains as popular as ever and nearly one billion were sold in the past year, with more than half of households grabbing a box,” he said.

“The average home cook now spends three minutes less preparing the evening meal than they did in 2017 at just under 31 minutes. We can see this trend in the growth of things like microwaveable rice, ready meals and chilled pizza too, which have grown by 8%, 6% and 5% respectively.”

Meanwhile, amongst the supermarkets Tesco enjoyed its largest monthly share gain since December 2024, as its hold of the market rose by 0.8 percentage points to 28.4%. This was driven by sales growth of 7.4% compared to last year.

Spending through the tills at Sainsbury’s was up 5.2% on last year, taking its portion of the market to 15.0%. Lidl was one of the fastest growing grocers, (tied for top spot with Ocado), over the 12 weeks to 10^th August 2025, with sales up by 10.7% compared to the same period last year. Lidl’s share of the market increased by 0.5 percentage points to 8.3%.

With its sales rising by 3.4%, Iceland’s hold of the market remains at 2.3%, while convenience specialist Co-op has a 5.4% share of take-home sales.

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New figures have revealed that grocery price inflation accelerated again, sitting at 5.2%, hitting the highest level since January 2024, while take-home sales at the grocers grew by 5.4% in the four weeks to 13^th July, according to Worldpanel (formerly Kantar).

With just under two thirds of households concerned about the cost of their food shop, their fears may well be realised with the prediction by Worldpanel that this latest rise could add almost £300 to their annual food bill if shopping habits remain the same.

Head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel, Fraser McKevitt said that people are adapting their habits in an attempt to avoid the full impact of price rises.

“Own label products, which are often cheaper, continue to be some of the big winners and in fact, sales of these ranges are again outpacing brands, growing by 5.6% versus 4.9%,” said Fraser.

“These inflationary worries aren’t just changing what we buy, but how we prepare it too. We often see people choosing to make simpler meals when they are trying to save money and today, almost seven in 10 dinner plates include fewer than six components.”

With budgets under pressure, supermarkets have been finding new ways to pique the interest of consumers, with innovation absolutely vital to help grocers keep up with new trends and make sure they’re meeting shoppers’ needs as behaviours and priorities shift.

“The drinks aisle in particular seems to be offering up plenty of inspiration,” added Fraser.

“Iced coffee has soared in popularity in recent years and with summer temperatures rising, sales were up this month by 81%. No and low alcohol drinks continue their gradual march into the mainstream too, with nearly seven in every 100 households buying a product this month, pushing sales up by 21%.”

Meanwhile, Lidl reached a record high market share this period at 8.3%, gaining 0.5 percentage points as it attracted more than half a million new customers to its stores.

Tesco also boosted its share to 28.3% as sales grew by 7.1%, the fastest rate since December 2023, while sales at Sainsbury’s increased by 5.3%, putting its market share at 15.1%. Convenience specialist, Co-op takes 5.2% of the market, and frozen expert Iceland holds 2.2% of grocery spending.

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